All the reports in the media regarding the foreclosure crisis have centered around the fall in house values and continued unemployment. There is, however, another looming crisis out there no one is talking about yet, except for Credit Suisse. There are millions of loans out there known as "Option Arms" or adjustable rate mortgages. After a set time period (typically a couple of years), the interest rates on these underlying mortgage products reset or recast and adjust to the prevailing prime-rate plus several percentage points based upon the specific mortgage terms. Most of these resets are expected to occur between 2010-2012 where nearly $1 trillion worth of these Arm's will readjust during this period.
While interest rates are remaining low and inflation remains subdued, many mortgagors that pay these Arms have not refinanced to a fixed rate mortgage product because they are taking advantage of the lower rates that now exist. Lower rates of course means lower monthly mortgage payments.
The fear, however, is that interest rates will begin to tick up before mortgagors are able to refinance to a fixed rate mortgage product and homeowners in this predicament will no longer be able to afford their monthly payments. Even those homeowners intending to refinance may no longer be able to because of the loss of home equity and income. Once these resets occur, it will be like 2007 all over again.
Batten down the hatches as round 2 is coming!
Leave a comment